Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 16.390489 19.881077 23.740916 28.299550 33.509298 39.250446 46.027715
2025-10-05 11.653992 16.275556 21.927706 29.231129 38.293148 49.040600 62.613526
2025-10-12 8.936952 13.992413 20.685451 29.937398 42.115847 57.311674 77.388014
2025-10-19 7.086834 12.291124 19.674705 30.475867 45.392166 64.764896 91.264418
2025-10-26 5.835170 11.112478 19.076658 31.311109 48.901282 72.510141 105.719929
2025-11-02 4.602905 9.665886 17.804039 30.925923 50.539957 77.696150 116.902115
2025-11-09 3.759733 8.660670 17.011490 31.074454 52.824117 83.753335 129.401700
2025-11-16 3.038109 7.695822 16.110422 30.894558 54.515777 88.960135 140.844862
2025-11-23 2.373481 6.667632 14.923025 30.076741 55.097944 92.505626 149.994666
2025-11-30 2.056475 6.280015 14.807365 30.995742 58.395976 100.126680 165.210537
2025-12-07 1.644077 5.563622 13.957066 30.532267 59.399554 104.300678 175.499167
2025-12-14 1.378098 5.120596 13.565015 30.820502 61.611483 110.359955 188.732038
2025-12-21 0.984660 4.227611 12.141507 29.138515 60.539066 111.507079 195.036525
2025-12-28 0.845811 4.009480 12.142320 30.180242 64.244114 120.402622 213.538432
2026-01-04 0.711068 3.749904 11.999754 30.910163 67.422708 128.561600 231.158286
2026-01-11 0.590230 3.482965 11.787618 31.462522 70.291782 136.304733 248.352095
2026-01-18 0.501783 3.293223 11.729513 32.318618 73.748347 145.127721 267.495661
2026-01-25 0.384998 2.921212 11.123855 31.923845 74.821877 149.979645 280.434613
2026-02-01 0.307398 2.669562 10.788177 32.076077 76.921485 156.620251 296.416858
2026-02-08 0.236803 2.397010 10.331199 31.891698 78.334297 162.105130 310.645311
2026-02-15 0.169088 2.071700 9.634369 31.053426 78.377332 165.177207 320.965636
2026-02-22 0.143643 1.987041 9.675811 31.995404 82.049513 174.754742 342.312657
2026-03-01 0.104148 1.754030 9.170133 31.520361 82.776910 179.093754 354.994487